It's just a trial version of PADS so I'm unable to change the dielectric constant however it's set at 4.3 which is a reasonable value.
Using 0.1466mm as trace width, 0.1666mm as trace spacing and 0.246 as height (2 x 0.123mm prepreg layers according to evaluation board stackup) and an estimation of 0.5mil soldermask, I get a calculated differential impedance of between 115 and 120 ohms (Using a dielectric of 4-4.5).
My understanding is that Z0 will tend to be higher than 50 as the calculations for Zdiff take into account coupling impedance.
Are you able to confirm what the calculated simulated Zdiff was for the evaluation board (assuming it's on record somewhere)?
Either I'm putting something wrong into my calculations or the difference is due to the fact that the impedance of the HDMI connector pads/IC pads are not taken into account. Since these are wider than the traces they would decrease the impedance.